The hottest low inventory is inferior to weak cons

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At the beginning of January, with the reduction of reserve requirements by the central bank, market sentiment eased, and the copper price rebounded, but the benefits were exhausted, and the follow-up did not continue. The copper price was unable to rise, and continued to get out of the weak shock and decline market

CPI fell in December, with an average annual increase of more than 2% in 2018

the National Bureau of statistics released the national consumer price index (CPI) data for December 2018 and the whole year of 2018 on January 10. Data show that in December 2018, CPI rose by 1.9% year-on-year, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; CPI rose by 2.1% in 2018

CPI was flat month on month in December 2018, and the differentiation trend of food and non food prices formed a hedge; Year on year, 1.9% was slightly lower than expected, international oil prices continued to fall sharply, and domestic refined oil prices fell significantly. From the perspective of the whole year, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI of 2.1% reflects mild price changes and a stable macro situation. Last year, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI exceeded 2% for the first time in four years, an increase of 0.5 percentage points over 2017, mainly due to the sharp rise in vegetable prices caused by extreme weather and natural disasters in summer. In 2018, vegetable prices increased by 7.1% year-on-year, which increased the CPI pull rate by 0.38 percentage points over 2017. In the CPI structure, the prices of education services and tourism services increased by 2.9% and 3.3% year-on-year, reflecting the transformation and upgrading of residents' consumption

looking at 2019, under the economic downturn cycle, weak demand, coupled with the easing of supply contraction caused by the marginal relaxation of environmental protection restrictions, the annual inflation pressure in 2019 is not high

the increase of PPI fell for six consecutive months, with weak demand for Industry

in December 2018, PPI rose 0.9% year-on-year, 1.8 percentage points lower than last month. In the second half of 2018, the year-on-year increase of PPI has narrowed for six consecutive months, hitting the lowest value since October 2016

from a month on month perspective, in December 2018, PPI fell by 1.0%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points over the previous month, which is also the largest monthly decline since February 2015. Among them, the price of means of production fell by 1.3%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points over the previous month; The price of means of subsistence turned flat from a slight increase of 0.2% last month

in recent months, the three major order indexes of the manufacturing industry have all continued to decline, and the demand has weakened. One user is looking for a way to replace metal inserts. The pressure has increased, which has an impact on the industrial production end. With the general fall in the price of industrial products after a certain negotiation, the profit growth of industrial enterprises may slow down significantly, or even have a year-on-year negative growth

macro optimism strengthened and waste plastics subsided, leaving the market with a puzzle

on January 8, for the first face-to-face consultation between China and the United States since the conclusion of the 90 day trade dispute "truce" agreement, the negotiation originally scheduled to end in the afternoon is still continuing. The move of overtime has attracted the attention of the market, which reflects that there are still many areas where the negotiation is pending. Judging from Trump's statement, the negotiations were relatively smooth, but the specific details still need to be finalized in subsequent negotiations. There was no substantial positive in the trade negotiations, and the market optimism gradually subsided

after the macro sentiment eased, there was no further substantial positive, which cast a shadow on the market again. Bulk commodities have also fallen into a stagflation situation. Under the uncertain macro environment, it is difficult for the market to have a clear upward signal

the price fell steadily, and there was no low-cost buying in the spot.

according to Shanghai SMM spot data, on January 14, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot reported a premium of 60 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton for the contract of the month, the transaction price of Pingshui Copper was 47110 yuan/ton to 47230 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of Shengshui copper was 47150 yuan/ton to 47270 yuan/ton. In the morning, the spot market reacted cautiously and the price began to decline gradually. There was no bargain hunting in the market. Good copper wanted to push up and return to the premium of 120 yuan/ton, but the trading was not awesome, so it was difficult to have support. Copper prices are weak and low, the downstream continues to wait and see, and trade speculation is also cautious. Before delivery, the market supply and demand sides may be in a seesaw situation

it is getting closer to the lunar new year, and the downstream replenishment mood is obviously insufficient. Under the influence of weak consumption, the copper price is difficult to be stimulated, and the market rate will probably get out of the situation of shock and decline in the future. It is suggested that investors should mainly wait and see when modifying materials

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